July 27, 2008

Another subject that intrigues me is foreign policy & geo-political trends. Particularly when it comes to the interesting battle for Asian supremacy between China & India as the 21st century unfolds. At this point, China appears to be comfortably ahead on infrastructure, resource brokering, population control, GDP & Purchasing Power (PP). India appears to be comfortably ahead on transparency, creativity & knowledge capital. It is the world’s true democracy - and whie that makes it lumber sometimes, it also ensures that the majority is heard. Net-net, China is in the better position today. And likely will be for the next 20 years at the minimum.

Interesting article in the Washington Post about China’s economic & geo-political future. Unlike the endless articles that either denigrate or hype China - I respect this perspective because the Journalist has spent a significant part of his life in China (28 years).

While I agree with the Author’s points on an aging population, pollution, water/resources & a general premium on efficiency over creativity being China’s weaknesses - all angles have not been taken into account. China has wisely invested people & resources in the Caribbean & Africa. Africa alone has close to a million Chinese people now making it their home and working to channel their own culture & trade into those territories. This will grow rapidly in the next decade, and more synergies will evolve without question.

Additionally, China’s military will be a significant force to be reckoned with in International waters by 2030. In a militarial setup, the redundant & regimental nature of the Chinese doctrine works in their favor. They have made wise investments in missile, robotic, aircraft, logistics, cyberwarfare & surveillance technology over the last 20 years. I will not comment on their means of procurement or how much of this research is truly original work. Nobody is innocent and nobody builds empires through entirely original thought.

Bottom line is, China will have a force capable of matching NATO & Russia in rapid strike capability in the near future. India, continues to make the right noises, but is atleast 10 years behind China when it comes to truly dividing its forces into Defensive & Offensive units. That makes it about 25 years behind NATO & Russia in my estimation. There is no doubting India has the creative energy, knowledge capital & resources to develop truly innovative military technology.

Sramana Mitra recently started a Vision India 2020 Series for her readers. The write-ups focus on retail, food, entertainment & education sectors and are quite inspiring (though I found them obvious) - but mainstream manufacturing remains unaddressed (Campbell soup competitors don’t count). The answer here is an initiative by the Indian Government on the scale of the U.S. Interstate Highway System to energize the military & manufacturing industry with it.

I am tired of letting ISRO & DRDO run the show for all military R&D and waiting 20 years for an indigenously developed tank that ends up using US engines & German drivetrains anyway. We need to stop kidding ourselves. The Chinese don’t kid themselves, and have a mature ICBM program that was initially derivative but now has its own innovations that make it a significant force to be reckoned with. The JL-2 doesn’t seem to be a bad missile from what I understand. It took 20-30 years for them to get this far, but they did.

We need tighter collaboration with ISRO/DRDO & the private sector. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) should not be the only success story for India. We need the Sukhoi/Northrop/Lockheeds in India. We need the General Dynamics & GEs & Honeywells that make it happen for the world’s foremost militaries.

Much of the technology used for ICBMs, Ramjets, Jet engines, Nuclear energy & the Space programs - came from WW2. Wernher von Braun’s lab in Peenemunde was the cradle of innovation at the time. Some great concepts, ideas & prototypes were born there and shared amongst Russia/America/Britain/France post-1945.

India needs to breed this. We don’t need a derivative military. Just because we can build the same stuff others can, doesn’t mean it will be a deterrent. We need to innovate and have novel ways to project power. I like our history of non-violence and I expect us to keep that tradition going into the future. A sharper army/navy/airforce ensures a more stable power landscape in Asia but crucially, it also will ignite India as a manufacturing powerhouse that doesn’t simply rival the world on manufacturing efficiency but innovation as wel. I am looking for the “Designed & Assembled in India.” sign at the back of these products - unlike the iPod (Read Closely).

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